Taking a combination of the way the Pontiff was going about things and how the first day went, I was inclined to think Geraldine was going to come out of the whole affair weakened and with less influence/power, but alive. I'm still not convinced she will burn at the stake (or be beheaded) but things aren't looking as good as they were 24 hours ago that's for sure.
One slight possibility for hope is that the Pontiff will do something that will so outrage other regents attending that the tribunal falls apart - don't know what that might be though, perhaps personally moving to annex Ilien as his own personal domain instead of acknowledging Diemed's claim?