Later in winter:
Continued assaults are put on hold - it seems more or less impossible to take the city in face of determined resistance.
By the later half of the season the Pontiff of All Anuire crosses the Spider River in secret and haste, using deception to wrong-foot the defenders - reports come in the he's crossed in the north, into Medoere, when in reality he has slipped across in the south. There are nearly 20 banners in his holy army, including some from Elinie - and Ilien.
As the Archduke makes ready to confront the Pontiff he receives more bad news - it was not a ruse at all; there IS an army up in Medoere, marching down. It just wasn't the Pontiff, but the full might of the Knights of Haelyn - come, no doubt, to force the Archduke to back down.
Carvaloen fumes and stomps, but with a need to keep Ilien under siege - and Ilien filled to the brim with fanatical militia...he just cannot afford to do what he would like - to drive the Pontiff back into the Spider River and send his black soul back to where it belongs!